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What Is Behavioral Economics?什么是行为经济学
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Behavioral Economics is the study of psychology as it relates to the economic decision-making processes of individuals and institutions. Behavioral economics is often related with normative economics. It draws on psychology and economics to explore why people sometimes make irrational decisions, and why and how their behavior does not follow the predictions of economic models.
行为经济学是对个人和机构在经济决策制定过程中心理状态的研究。行为经济学通常与规范经济学相关。它利用心理学和经济学来研究人为何有时会制定非理性决策，以及他们的行为为何/如何违背经济模型预测。
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KEY TAKEAWAYS/要点
Behavioral economics is the study of psychology that analyzes the decisions people make and why irrational choses are chosen.行为经济学研究的是人们在制定决策以及做出非理性选择时的心理。
Behavior economics is influenced by bounded rationality, an architecture of choices, cognitive biases, and herd mentality.行为经济学受到以下因素影响：有限理性、选择架构、认知偏见、从众思维。
Behavior economics is crafted around many principles including framing, heuristics, loss aversion, and the sunk-cost fallacy.行为经济学的核心原则包括：框架效应、个人经验、损失厌恶和沉没成本谬误。
Companies use information from behavioral economics to price their goods, craft their commercials, and package their products.企业会利用行为经济学理论来为产品定价、制作广告和产品包装。
Starbucks' limited season drinks, Amazon's Lightning Deals, or 'buy one, get one' promotions are all tied to behavioral economics.星巴克的季节限定饮品，亚马逊的Lightning Deal闪购活动，或买一送一等促销活动都与行为经济学有关。
Understanding Behavioral Economics理解行为经济学
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In an ideal world, people would always make optimal decisions that provide them with the greatest benefit and satisfaction. In economics, rational choice theory states that when humans are presented with various options under the conditions of scarcity, they would choose the option that maximizes their individual satisfaction.
在理想世界中，人们总是会制定能够带来最大收益和满足感的最佳决策。而在行为经济学中，理性选择理论认为，当在选项稀少的条件下人们面临这些选项时，他们会选择能够最大化个人满足感的选项。
This theory assumes that people, given their preferences and constraints, are capable of making rational decisions by effectively weighing the costs and benefits of each option available to them. The final decision made will be the best choice for the individual. The rational person has self-control and is unmoved by emotions and external factors and, hence, knows what is best for himself. Alas, behavioral economics explains that humans are not rational and are incapable of making good decisions.
该理论认为，人们会在个人偏好和限制条件的基础上，有效权衡每种可选选项的成本与收益，从而做出理性决策。最终决策对其个人而言将会是最佳选择。理性的人拥有自控力，不会受到情绪和外界因素的影响，因此知道什么对自己是最好的。但行为经济学则认为人并非是理性的，无法做出明智决策。
Because humans are emotional and easily distracted beings, they make decisions that are not in their self-interest. For example, according to the rational choice theory, if Charles wants to lose weight and is equipped with information about the number of calories available in each edible product, he will opt only for food products with minimal calories.
因为人类容易被情绪左右，且容易被转移注意力，他们会做出对自身不利的决定。例如，根据理性选择理论，如果Charles想要减肥，而且拥有食物卡路里信息数据，他应该是只会选择卡路里含量最低的食品的。
Behavioral economics states that even if Charles wants to lose weight and sets his mind on eating healthy food going forward, his end behavior will be subject to cognitive bias, emotions, and social influences. If a commercial on TV advertises a brand of ice cream at an attractive price and quotes that all human beings need 2,000 calories a day to function effectively after all, the mouth-watering ice cream image, price, and seemingly valid statistics may lead Charles to fall into the sweet temptation and fall off of the weight loss bandwagon, showing his lack of self-control.
但行为经济学则认为，即使Charles想要减肥，并决心从此只吃健康食物，他的最终行为也会受到认知偏见、情绪和社会影响因素的影响。如果电视上在播一个品牌的冰淇淋广告，价格有吸引力，并引用了所有人类每天都需要两千卡路里才能保持正常机能这一论断，那么这令人垂涎的冰激凌画面、价格和看起来很有说服力的数据，都可能会让Charles屈服于这种甜美诱惑，偏离减肥轨道，这也展示了他缺乏自制力。
Behavioral economics and behavioral finance are often driven by many of the same factors, though behavior finance is often more related to financial markets.
行为经济学和行为金融学通常具有相同的驱动因素，但行为金融学通常是与金融市场相关。
History of Behavioral Economics行为经济学历史
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Notable individuals in the study of behavioral economics are Nobel laureates Gary Becker (motives, consumer mistakes; 1992), Herbert Simon (bounded rationality; 1978), Daniel Kahneman (illusion of validity, anchoring bias; 2002), George Akerlof (procrastination; 2001), and Richard H. Thaler (nudging, 2017).
行为经济学研究中的知名人士中包含以下诺贝尔获奖者：Gary Becker（动机、消费者错误；1992）、Herber Simon（有限理性，1978）（有限理性模型也被称为西蒙模型）、Daniel Kahneman（有效性错觉——人们往往高估自己的判断精确和准确度、锚定偏见——容易先入为主，将最先接收的信息作为参照物，2002）、George Akerlof（拖延；2001）和 Richard H. Thaler（助推理论，2017）。
In the 18th century, Adam Smith noted that people are often overconfident with their own abilities, noting 'the chance of gain is by every man more or less over-valued, and the chance of loss is by most men under-valued, and by scarce any man, who is in tolerable health and spirits, valued more than it is worth.”1 In this sense, Smith believed individuals are not rational with their own limitations.
在18世纪，亚当·史密斯就提出，人们通常对个人能力过度自信，并说“几乎每个人都高估收益几率，低估损失几率，而且身处良好健康和精神状态的人中，几乎没有人会去过度重视损失风险。”从这一角度而言，史密斯认为每个个体是存在限制的，无法做到理性。
More recently, behavioral economics took shape as early as the 1960's when several economists identified key biases when recalling information. This idea called availability heuristic was explained by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and it leads individuals to irrationally interpret data. For example, shark attacks tend to happen less than people think, but headlines may make people feel otherwise. Tversky and Kahneman are also credited with developing prospect theory, how people are potentially more adverse to losses as opposed to receiving an equal win.
在之后，随着上世纪60年代一些经济学家提出了人们回忆信息时的几种关键偏见，行为经济学开始成形。一种名为“可得性启发”（availability heuristic）的偏见由 Amos Tversky 和 Daniel Kahneman提出。该认知偏见会导致人们以非理性方式解析数据。例如，鲨鱼攻击次数往往比人们认为的少，但各种新闻头条却让人们感觉并非如此。Tversky 和 Kahneman 也提出了前景理论（prospect theory），即，与获得相同收益相比，人们更讨厌损失同等事物（丢掉5块钱的伤心程度要高于得到5块钱的快乐程度，宁愿得不到这5块钱也不愿意损失5块钱）
Even more recently, Richard Thaler received the Sveriges Riksbank Price in Economics Science in 2017 for his work in identifying factors that guide individual' economic decision-making. Thaler's work included limited rationality, social preferences, lack of self-control, and individual decision-making.
之后，Richard Thaler 凭借他提出的导致人们做出经济决策的各种因素，在2017年获得诺贝尔经济学奖。Thaler的研究内容包括：有限理性、社会偏好、缺乏自制力、个人决策等。
Factors That Influence Behavior影响行为的因素
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There are often five factors that are cited when analyzing how individual behavior is influenced.
当分析个体行为影响因素时，往往会提到以下5种。
Bounded Rationality有限理性
Bounded rationality is the concept in which individuals make decisions based on the knowledge they have. Unfortunately, this information is often limited, whether by the individual's lack of expertise of lack of available information. In regards to finance and investing, the same public information is available to everyone, though investors may not know true circumstances of what is happening with a company internally.
有限理性是指：人们根据个人所知信息制定决策，但不幸的是，这些信息往往是存在局限的，或是因为该个体缺乏专业知识，或是缺乏信息。在金融和投资方面，人人可获取公开信息，但投资者们可能会知道某家公司的一些内部实情信息。
Choice Architecture选择架构
People can be easily manipulated, and this is often on display in the way promoters craft incentives or deals to make consumers buy certain products. Consider how a cracker display may be presented right next to the cheese aisle within a supermarket. This type of design is meant to steer a consumer into making a decision based on a choreographed demonstration often between complementary goods.
人们会很容易被操控，这通常体现在一些促销激励或优惠活动的设计方式中。想一下，在一家超市中，饼干货架可能会直接放在奶酪区。这种类型的设计，目的是引导消费者根据设计好的商品展示而做出选择，而且被展示的通常是两种互补商品。
Cognitive Bias认知偏见
Whether people realize it or not, everybody makes decisions that are influenced by cognitive bias. Consider the choice of choosing between two companies to invest in. Behavioral economics holds the theory that the color of the logo, the name of the CEO, or the city in which each company is headquartered in may stir up an unknown bias that yields us to choose the other company.
无论人们是否意识到，每个人在做出决定时都受到认知偏见的影响。想象一下需要在两家公司中选一家投资。根据行为经济学理论，商标颜色、CEO名字甚至公司总部所在城市都会引发我们自身并没意识到的认知偏见，导致我们选择另外一家。
Discrimination区别对待
In a similar light, behavioral economics is often associated with discrimination. People perceive things, events, or other people through their own lenses, potentially discriminating towards others because they simply favor a different alternative. This does not necessarily mean the alternative is a better option, though.
同理，行为经济学也通常与个体的区别对待相关。人们都透过自己戴的不同颜色的有色眼镜去看待事物和人，会因为个人偏好而区别对待，虽然这并不意味着他们偏好的就是更佳选项。
Herd Mentality从众思维
Many consumer decisions are influenced by what other people are doing. Whether it is the fear of missing out or whether others want to be part of a larger collective, herd mentality is the believe that individual decisions are swayed based on what other people do, not necessarily on what is the best outcome. After all, it is much easier rooting for your favorite team even if they haven't won a championship in a while as long as other fans share your pain.
很多消费者决策受到大众行为的影响。无论是因为担心错过什么，或者想要在更大的集体中有归属感，从众思维的概念是指，个体决策会受到其他人行为的左右，但这种决策并非一定是最佳选项。毕竟，即使你最喜爱的球队很久没有赢得冠军了，只要还有其他球迷与你共悲伤，就让你更易于继续支持这一球队。
The media plays a critical part in behavioral economics. Consider how a single headline can grab your attention and make you want to either pursue or avoid a product.
媒体在行为经济学中扮演着关键决策。想一下一个简短标题是如何吸引你的眼球，让你种草或拔草某件商品的。
Principals of Behavioral Economics行为经济学的主要准则
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The field of economics is vast. Although behavioral economics is just a subset of the field, it itself has a number of guiding principles that dictate the themes within behavioral economics. Some of the primary principles and themes are listed below.
经济学是一个很宽泛的范畴，尽管行为经济学只是其中一个子领域，其本身有很多指引着行为经济学领域各种主题的指导准则。其中一些主要准则和主题如下。
Framing框架效应（从另一角度描述某一事物）
Framing is the principle of how something is presented to an individual. This behavioral economics concept presents a cognitive bias in that an outcome may be determined based on the structure of how something has been presented. Consider how someone may feel about the two following statements about Babe Ruth, both of which are describing the same thing:
框架效应是指向某个个体呈现某事物的方式。这一概念指向了这一认知偏见，即，事物被呈现的方式，可能会决定结果。想象一下以下两种关于Babe Ruth的陈述。两个陈述其实是在讲同一件事。
Babe Ruth failed to get a hit in nearly two-thirds of his at-bats.
Babe Ruth 在所有打数中，有近三分之二没击中。
Babe Ruth, one of the greatest baseball players of all time, hit .342 in his lifetime.
Babe Ruth，史上最伟大棒球运动员之一，职业生涯中共击中343次。
（小米公司的营销中就经常采用这一效应。比如比硬币还要薄）
Heuristics启发式思维（依照凭经验/经历建立的思维捷径）Heuristics is a complicated field, but it simply means that humans tend to make decisions using mental shortcuts as opposed to using long, rational, optimal reasoning. Most often, people latch onto something is true that may no longer be the case. In this situation, it's easier for the consumer to continue what they've been doing as opposed to realize a more beneficial situation exists.
启发式思维是一个复杂领域，但基本是指人们更倾向于依赖思维捷径制定决策，而非采用更耗时的理性和最优推理过程。大多数情形下，人们习惯坚守着已经不再适用的某样东西。这种思维模式下，消费者更易于延续之前做法，而非去探索更有益情形。
Loss Aversion损失厌恶Behavioral economics is rooted in the notion that people do not like losses. In fact, people are loss averse to the point that an economic outcome of one financial value that is negative outweighs the emotional toll of the same financial value but positive. For example, some people feel there is much stronger negative emotions associated with losing a $20 bill compared to finding a $20 bill on the ground.
行为经济学植根于这一理念，即，人们讨厌损失。实际上，人们对损失的厌恶是如此之甚，以至于某一经济损失所带来的情绪影响要比同等数值经济收益带来的情绪影响强烈。例如，一些人感觉，丢了一张20美元所产生的负面情绪，要比捡了20元而带来的正面情绪强烈得多。
Market Inefficiencies市场效率低下For lack of a better phrase, the market can take advantage of behavior economics. For this reason, market inefficiencies play a crucial part in behavior economics. Consider how overpriced stocks may still lure in investors due to drops in P/E ratios. Though the trading multiple may still be abnormally high, investors may think something in the market is more reasonable simply because it is lower. For example, a stock worth $20 may be trading at $50. Should the price to $40, investors may feel this is a great opportunity.
由于一时想不到更好措辞，我这里就先如此陈述：市场本身也会利用行为经济学。因此，市场的低效率在行为经济学中扮演着重要角色。想象一下这种场景：估价过高的股票只是因为市盈率降低，可能就会继续吸引投资者。尽管交易倍数可能依旧高得异常，投资者可能觉得只是因为数值降低了，所以就相对更合理一些。例如，一个值20美元的股票可能交易价为50美元。当价格跌至40美元，投资者可能就会感觉这是千载难逢的机会。
Mental Accounting心理账户（Richard Thaler 提出）Consumers and investors may change their spending and trading tendencies based on circumstances. Though this is fair, often times it is illogical and shapes many aspects of behavioral economics. For example, after receiving one's annual bonus, an investor may choose to invest in riskier stocks. This mental accounting exercise led an investor to make a decision based on their circumstances, not their long-term strategy.
消费者和投资者们可能会在不同客观情形下改变自己的花费和交易倾向。尽管这无可厚非，但通常会让他们做出不合逻辑的决策，这一倾向影响着行为经济学的多个方面。例如，获得年终奖之后，投资者可能就会选择投资风险更高的股票。这种心理账户会让投资者根据具体境遇情形而制定决策，而非根据长期策略。
Sunk-Cost Fallacy沉没成本谬误The sunk-cost fallacy is the emotional attachment to costs that have been incurred in the past. Consumers and investors tend to have a harder time 'letting go' of failed investments or committed capital. Consider a failed stock that was purchased at $100/share that is now worth $15/share. An investor may not feel compelled to buy in at $15/share because they think the company is not worth that. However, they are unwilling to sell their shares bought at $100/share due to an emotional attachment to that committed capital.
沉没成本谬误是指对过去发生的成本产生的情感依恋。消费者和投资者往往更难以“放手”失败的投资或已投入的资本。想象一下一只购买价格为100美元/股的失败股票，现在的价值只有15美元/股。投资者可能不会因为认为公司不值得购买而不愿以15美元/股的价格购入。然而，由于对已投入资本的情感依恋，他们不愿以100美元/股的价格出售所购买的股票。
When performing a cost/benefit analysis, sunk costs are ignored entirely. That is because the price has already been paid and, if it can not be recovered, it has no financial bearing on the future outcome of a decision. 在进行成本/效益分析时，沉没成本完全被忽略。这是因为成本已经支付，如果无法收回，它对未来决策结果没有任何财务影响。
Applications of Behavioral Economics行为经济学的应用
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01
Financial Markets金融市场
One field in which behavioral economics can be applied to is behavioral finance, which seeks to explain why investors make rash decisions when trading in the capital markets. Much like how poker professionals not only study the mathematics and odds of poker, they also attempt to capitalize on the irrational nature of other players. The same can be said of financial markets.
在行为金融学中，可以通过行为经济学解释为何一些投资者在资本市场中会做出莽撞决策。就像很多扑克职业选手不仅研究扑克牌中的数学和比率，他们也会利用其他玩家的不理性本质。金融市场也同样如此。
02
Game Theory博弈论
Behavioral game theory combines insights from traditional game theory with principles from behavioral economics to study how individuals make decisions in strategic situations where the outcomes depend on the choices of multiple players.
行为博弈论将传统博弈论的见解与行为经济学的原则相结合，研究个体在战略性局面中的决策，其中结果取决于多个参与者的选择。
Game theory traditionally assumes that players are rational and always act in their own best interest to maximize their utility (or payoff). However, behavioral game theory acknowledges that human decision-making is often influenced by psychological factors, cognitive biases, and social preferences, which may lead to deviations from the predictions of traditional game theory.
传统博弈论假定玩家是理性的，并始终根据自己的最大效用（或回报）来行事。然而，行为博弈论承认，人类的决策往往受到心理因素、认知偏差和社会偏好的影响，这可能导致与传统博弈论的预测偏离。
In behavioral game theory, researchers use experiments to observe how individuals behave in strategic interactions and analyze these behaviors through the lens of behavioral economics. They investigate how factors such as fairness, reciprocity, trust, and emotions impact decision-making in games.
在行为博弈论中，研究人员使用实验观察个体在战略互动中的行为，并通过行为经济学的视角分析这些行为。他们研究诸如公平、互惠、信任和情绪等因素如何影响个体决策。
Some key concepts in behavioral game theory include:
Social preferences: Individuals may care about outcomes not only for themselves but also for others. They may be motivated by fairness, reciprocity, or altruism.
Cognitive biases: Decision-making may be affected by biases such as overconfidence, loss aversion, and framing effects.
Learning and adaptation: Players may learn from past experiences or adapt their strategies based on the behavior of others.
Heterogeneity: Different individuals may exhibit different preferences and decision-making tendencies, leading to diverse strategies and outcomes in games.
行为博弈论的一些关键概念包括：
社会偏好：个体可能不仅关心自己的结果，还关心他人的结果。他们可能受到公平、互惠或利他主义的驱动。
认知偏差：决策可能受到诸如过度自信、损失厌恶和框架效应等偏差的影响。
学习和适应：玩家可能从过去的经验中学习，或根据他人的行为调整策略。
异质性：不同的个体可能表现出不同的偏好和决策倾向，导致游戏中多样化的策略和结果。
Overall, behavioral game theory provides a framework for understanding and predicting how individuals behave in strategic interactions, taking into account the complexities of human psychology and behavior. It has applications in various fields, including economics, political science, psychology, and evolutionary biology.
总的来说，行为博弈论提供了一个框架，用于理解和预测个体在战略互动中的行为，考虑到人类心理和行为的复杂性。它在经济学、政治学、心理学和进化生物学等各个领域都有应用。
03
Pricing Strategies定价策略
Companies are increasingly incorporating behavioral economics to increase sales of their products. In 2007, the price of the 8GB iPhone was introduced for $600 and quickly reduced to $400. By introducing the phone at a higher price and bringing it down to $400, consumers believed they were getting a pretty good deal, even if the true value of the product was only $400.
公司越来越多地将行为经济学纳入到他们的产品销售中。2007年，8GB iPhone的价格最初为600美元，很快就降到了400美元。通过以较高的价格推出手机，然后将其降至400美元，消费者认为非常优惠，即使产品的真实价值只有400美元。
04
Product Packaging and Distribution产品包装和分销
Consider a soap manufacturer who produces the same soap but markets them in two different packages to appeal to multiple target groups. One package advertises the soap for all soap users, the other for consumers with sensitive skin. The latter target would not have purchased the product if the package did not specify that the soap was for sensitive skin. They opt for the soap with the sensitive skin label even though it’s the exact same product in the general package.
想象一下一个生产同一种肥皂的制造商，但将它们包装成两种不同的包装以吸引多个目标群体。一种包装将肥皂宣传给所有的肥皂用户，另一种则宣传给有敏感皮肤的消费者。如果包装没有指定肥皂适用于敏感皮肤，后者的目标消费群体将不会购买该产品。尽管两种包装中的肥皂完全相同，他们会选择带有敏感皮肤标签的肥皂。
Examples of Behavioral Economics行为经济学示例
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Payless shoes may be most known for their 'buy one, get one' deals. If a consumer purchases one pair of shoes, the second pair is often discounted. Though a consumer may not need two pairs of shoes, the consumer may be unwilling to part ways with a discount.
Payless鞋店可能以其“买一送一”优惠而闻名。如果消费者购买一双鞋，第二双鞋通常会打折。尽管消费者可能不需要两双鞋，但他们可能不愿意放弃折扣。
One form of loss aversion and scarcity is Amazon's Lightning Deals. A consumer may not be willing to part ways with a product they don't even known. Because these Amazon deals are for a limited time only, a consumer faces the behavioral economics dilemma of buying the product or 'losing' it. The seasonality of Starbucks' drinks is another example of a product consumers must buy now or miss out.
亚马逊的闪购是一种损失厌恶和稀缺性的形式。消费者可能不愿意放弃一件甚至不了解的产品。因为这些亚马逊优惠只有在有限的时间内有效，消费者面临着购买产品或“失去”产品的行为经济学困境。星巴克饮品的季节性也是消费者必须立即购买或错过的产品的另一个例子。
Last, turn on your television and almost every commercial contains framing. Note how car advertisements or splash pages like Tesla's website for its Model Y only point out the strengths of the vehicle.
最后，打开电视几乎每个商业广告都采用了框架效应。注意汽车广告或产品启动页，比如特斯拉网站上为其Model Y设计页面，这些页面只指出车辆的优势。
What Do Behavioral Economists Do?行为经济学家的工作内容是什么？
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Behavioral economists work to understand what consumers do, why they make the choices they do and assist markets in helping consumers make those decisions. Behavioral economists may work for the government to shape public policy to protect consumers. Other times, they may work for private companies and assist in fostering sales growth.
行为经济学家试图理解消费者行为、为何做出某些选择，并帮助消费者制定决策，以协助市场。行为经济学家可能会为政府工作，帮助政府制定公众政策以保护消费者。他们也可能为私人企业工作，帮助提升销售额。
What Is the Goal of Behavioral Economics?行为经济学的目标是什么？
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The goal of behavioral economics is to understand why humans make the decisions they do. There are usually outcomes that are the best for people and many times, people do not choose that outcome. Behavioral economics is an incredibly complex and sometimes inexplainable science of why people do things and why they choose to not be rational.
行为经济学旨在理解人们制定决策的背后原因。通常是存在对人们而言的最佳结果的，但很多时候人们并不会选择这一最佳结果。行为经济学研究人们为何做出某些行为，为何选择非理性选项。它是一门极为复杂而且有时难以解释的学科。
What Is the Downside to Behavioral Economics?行为经济学有何弊端？
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One downside to behavioral economics is that it can be used to deceive or manipulate people and their decision-making. Though people are often not rational, this irrationality may be predictable. Companies can choose to exploit this by packaging their products in a certain way, pricing their goods at specific levels, or customizing their marketing to attract certain markets.
行为经济学的一个弊端是，它可以被用于欺骗或操控人们以及人们的决策流程。尽管人们常常不理性，这种不理性可能会是可预测的。公司可通过特定包装、特别定价或采用个性化营销方式来吸引特定市场，从而利用这一点。
The Bottom Line|结语
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Behavioral economics is the field of understanding why people do things financially that may be irrational. Blended between cognitive bias, heuristics, bounded rationalities and herd mentality, people tend to do things that may not always be in their best interest. This information can be used to price goods, package products, craft commercials, and generate promotional deals.
行为经济学是研究人们非理性经济行为的学科。在认知偏见、启发式思维（思维捷径，不动脑子想，凭经验快速判断）、有限理性和从众思维的影响下，人们往往会做出并不符合自己最佳利益的选择。这类信息可以被应用于产品定价、产品包装、广告制作和促销活动等。
原文链接：
What Is Behavioral Economics? Theories, Goals配资实盘平台, and Applications (investopedia.com)
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